Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.953508 2.336461 2.766276 3.283184 3.886656 4.567562 5.392646
2026-01-25 1.342838 1.809404 2.390386 3.162034 4.154410 5.381535 7.006843
2026-02-01 0.976728 1.455244 2.105019 3.041221 4.342763 6.073258 8.529987
2026-02-08 0.769565 1.249915 1.952022 3.035048 4.640781 6.905700 10.305950
2026-02-15 0.626022 1.098308 1.835176 3.041771 4.933071 7.739038 12.155632
2026-02-22 0.510304 0.961857 1.710081 3.003872 5.136262 8.445986 13.878460
2026-03-01 0.402280 0.813323 1.535368 2.850942 5.125209 8.808436 15.095437
2026-03-08 0.335158 0.722612 1.440354 2.811222 5.284225 9.442924 16.790208
2026-03-15 0.284298 0.651500 1.366629 2.793965 5.472407 10.135035 18.635663
2026-03-22 0.262691 0.634643 1.390894 2.958114 5.998988 11.448852 21.649611
2026-03-29 0.235808 0.600770 1.375427 3.041765 6.383150 12.544671 24.376889
2026-04-05 0.216494 0.579703 1.382157 3.168833 6.861525 13.850408 27.587876
2026-04-12 0.188690 0.533739 1.330275 3.171552 7.103509 14.756288 30.178342
2026-04-19 0.157158 0.471423 1.231542 3.059552 7.099134 15.193703 31.932829
2026-04-26 0.130729 0.415826 1.138056 2.943934 7.070394 15.576302 33.610724
2026-05-03 0.114454 0.383944 1.095694 2.938443 7.276188 16.443864 36.312804
2026-05-10 0.101054 0.357012 1.060843 2.945127 7.508395 17.384480 39.238113
2026-05-17 0.087669 0.326669 1.011520 2.908374 7.635598 18.113376 41.785136
2026-05-24 0.072122 0.285115 0.923813 2.759904 7.480582 18.217354 43.023504
2026-05-31 0.062632 0.261068 0.880659 2.721346 7.585139 18.899552 45.554417
2026-06-07 0.055085 0.241699 0.847478 2.704593 7.741143 19.709970 48.429079
2026-06-14 0.053126 0.242485 0.875722 2.863966 8.363342 21.643773 53.952760
2026-06-21 0.049277 0.234980 0.876707 2.945191 8.791009 23.157470 58.636468